Deflation We have disinflation or deflation almost everywhere in the world. Europe is the biggest beneficiary of falling energy prices. US is not a beneficiary anymore due to being a net-exporter. US Federal Reserve This fed hiking cycle will be the shortest and shallowest on record. I think the Fed will be on hold and perhaps even cut rates this time next year. Stock Market Ultimately I do expect to see a 25 percent correction in the equity markets from around here, maybe a little higher... marginally higher.