Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Fed rate hike this year would be a mistake [VIDEO]

Bob Janjuah on the possibilities of Fed rate hike and possibly even Rate cuts. 

Monday, July 13, 2015

Worries for Unskilled workers in the future [VIDEO]

Watch the video interview - Bob Janjuah speaks on employment, debt, education costs, Emerging markets huge Dollar debts. 

Monday, July 6, 2015

Deflation overpowering China

I do not expect the global fundamental themes to change. With the current very worrying situation in Greece and China, it would be foolish to focus too much on what may or may not happen in the very short term, but I am confident in my view that by the end of Q3/early Q4 we will still be worried about weakness in global growth and about the lack of sustainable core global inflation – if anything, the deflationary wave that is currently engulfing China, and which has been given a major boost by both the collapse in equity markets and by China’s unwillingness (for now) to weaken its currency, will soon wash up all over the world, particularly in the US. 

In this regard, note that the price of crude has fallen by over 15% from its Q2 high to current levels. In terms of the sustainability of the eurozone/Greece, it looks like the next three months will be crucial, but NEVER underestimate the willingness of eurozone leaders, the EU and the Eurogroup to “fudge” a way through – we are well over five years into this “fudge” era, despite being told many times that things were “fixed”, and I think the sustainability of the eurozone/Greece may well be a core global theme for at least another five years. 

Overall, all things globally point to looser monetary policy for longer as the only lever that is perceived to work is the FX devaluation route. And, of course, for now, the USD and the RMB are on everyone’s “other side”.