Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Bob Janjuah not feeling comfortable about the real US economy

 I remain very uncomfortable, as I do not see the U.S. economy (the real economy, not financial asset prices) strong enough to offset the deflation it will experience as US Dollar continues to climb. Which is why I do not expect the Fed to do anything on the rates/easy money front for a long time.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Expect drop in market later this year

I would expect that, if I am right about the next quarter or two, then VIX should hit this target [single digit levels] during this time frame. At that point, positioning for the big turn and reversal of large chunks of the nominal wealth/asset price gains since early 2009 would take over as my key investment strategy.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Money printing policy has failed because of this

I have long expected outright ECB QE, and we basically have that now, but I still think the ECB will move to explicit QE in the next quarter or so. Of course that won't 'fix' the real economy in the euro zone, but central banking easy money since 2009 has had very little to do with boosting the real economy and is much more about generating assets bubbles in the hope that it creates trickle-down consumption.

That this policy has failed is clear-the biggest beneficiaries since March 2009 have been the owners of capital (i.e., those who least need wealth gains and who tend to hoard, not spend, such gains) very much at the expense of the masses (i.e., those who most need income and wealth, and who tend to spend and not hoard).

Monday, September 8, 2014

Bullish on for next few weeks

On balance I feel that beyond the next three to four weeks, I am mildly bullish risk on a three- to four-month time frame. The drivers are likely to be central banks, as well as the usual seasonality factor, which tends to drive risk assets up into year end.

I would use any risk asset weakness over the balance of September and early October as an opportunity to BUY risk into year-end/early 2015.