Wednesday, February 5, 2014

QE will fail equities in 2014 - 2015

Of course QE has been a friend for the paper wealth of the top 1%, at the expense of the many, through boosting speculation and financial engineering. 

But as we can all see, QE stopped being a friend of commodities in 2010/11, it stopped being a positive for EM around late 2012/13, has I think stopped being a positive for housing assets from around mid-2013/early 2014, and in 2014/15 the ‘last man standing’ in the QE fan club – equities – will also fall out of love with QE. 

Why? Because as 2014 unwinds the data will I think expose policymakers as falling far behind the curve, persisting with a policy tool, whose ‘success’ is increasingly narrowly based and which is failing to deliver broad-based inflation, growth or any other meaningful positives to the real economy, whose incomes, earnings and cashflows must ultimately validate all financial market asset valuations. 

I think later in 2014 the themes of deflation and recession will dominate, and in the middle of this it will I think be painful to watch Ms Janet Yellen and other policymakers flip flop and attempt to extract themselves from their policy errors.