Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Bob Janjuah Market update

Since I last wrote markets have largely followed the path I set out in June. At the time I was looking for the risk sell-off that began in May (and which was sparked by Fed Chairman Bernanke’s tapering comments) to result in the S&P falling from 1687 to no lower than 1530 in Q2/Q3, and then I expected the S&P to rally (driven by the Fed’s inevitable subsequent concerns on tapering, which I felt would see the Fed heavily water down its tapering message) all the way to the high 1700s/1800 in Q3/Q4.



 By way of review: The Q2/Q3 sell-off stopped with an S&P low print at 1560 in late June; the Fed got so concerned about tapering over Q3 that it not only heavily watered down its tapering message, it abandoned it (for now!) altogether; the subsequent rally I expected has seen the S&P trade to a Q4 2013 high (so far) of 1775. Overall, my forecast set out in my June note turned out to be accurate.