Monday, April 22, 2013

Be wary of a sell off

Focus on being very tactical and liquid, whichever way you feel markets are going to trend. Now is not the time to be getting overly levered, overly "structured?, or overly illiquid with respect to portfolio positioning.

Who is Bob Janjuah ?
Bob Janjuah is a former RBS Analyst who correctly predicted the 2008 market crash. 

Article from The Telegraph dated 6/18/2008

"The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks. 

A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist. 

The bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets."

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

QE infinity could end when Bernanke leaves

"QE infinity" has driven markets to new highs but that rally could end when Bernanke leaves.

The message from me is that anyone who is different is a risk for the market. When we transition from one Fed chairman to another, things tend to happen. When we went from Volcker to Greenspan in October 1987, markets dropped up to 35 percent, so any change in that figure-head and chairman's role is a risk for the market.

The big one for me isn't so much in the detail of what the Fed might, or might not do in the next few months, it's the fact that Bernanke may well not be in that job come January next year.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Janet Yellen appointment could scare bond market

She is far looser or more dovish than Bernanke. My issue with somebody like Yellen is that she’s potentially perceived as such a loose cannon — so loose that it would scare the bond market, whereas Bernanke has built up a certain level of credibility with the market.

A client said to me a few weeks ago that if Karl Marx was in charge of the world, he’d have Janet Yellen as his central bank governor.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Markets will dip then rise till end of the year

Even though the market could dip, the coming dip will be bought by investors and "celebrated".

I am fully expecting new all-time nominal highs in, for example, the S&P, into the 1,600s, once it has its first weekly close above 1,575. I think this should occur in the third quarter.

This bullishness will reign all the way until the end of the year when it will face increased scrutiny and pressure.

Global growth, especially from emerging markets will likely continue to disappoint, he said, adding that the transition from current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to his successor will likely disrupt proceedings.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Markets about to dip lower soon

I think we are now beginning or very soon about to begin the next (slightly bigger) dip lower, of 5 percent to 10 percent over the second quarter, taking the S&P from the 1,575/1550s down to the 1,450/1,475 zone.