Sunday, January 1, 2012

Bob Janjuah thoughts on debt


Unchanged from last year/the last few years: Too much debt, insufficient "real" self-sustaining growth, and the same old failed thinking from (Western) policymakers, which over the last 20 + years has created the biggest debt disaster in modern history. Western policy makers, at the national and G20/IMF level, still seem to have no response to solvency problems other than printing more money, loading on more debt, and hoping that "time" sorts it all out. In other words, the extension of ponzi schemes which are being used to cover up our lack of competitiveness and real productivity growth through the use of money debasement and leverage.

As ever, the bigger this effort gets the harder the fall once the inevitable collapse happens. Of course NOTHING moves in a straight line, so investors must understand and accept that even in a secular period of weak growth and bearish market moves we can still have occasional risk squeezes and short periods of "OK" data within a broader declining/weak trend. What is clear is that the financial crisis that began in 07/08 heralded the end of a policy era, and instead the collective fear amongst policymakers and their desire to protect and preserve self-interests has led to (Western) policymakers embracing some ugly version of pseudo capitalism that is best labelled neo-communism.